Ebac Weatherwatch

 

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Ebac Weekly article

6th November 2006

by John Kettley

 

Last month was strangely similar to October 2005 - warm, wet and dull - with the same peak of temperature to 20C in parts of southern England and the south midlands on the 30th. More surprising is the fact that this was the third exceptionally warm October of this decade although for Scotland it was actually warmer in 2001.

 

It is widely believed that global warming will bring more frequent and catastrophic weather events to this country, and it is difficult to argue with that. However the truth is that extreme weather events have always occurred across our islands and climate change was unknown in the times of the East Coast flooding of 1952 or the severe winter of 1963!

 

Statistics can, it seems, prove almost anything and according to official figures the period from May to October 2006 has been the warmest such period on record, comprehensive figures dating back to 1914. I would suggest that people’s perception of that period is not quite so upbeat because anyone taking a holiday during August will have been disappointed with the cool and rainy weather. The figures are also biased because of many warm nights during the six months, even when the daytime was unexceptional. That said we will all remember the intense heat of July when temperatures reached 32C (90F) somewhere in this country on eight consecutive days.

 

As if by magic a change in month instantly brought a plunge in temperature with widespread frosts in the second half of last week. Temperatures had tumbled to minus 4C at Tulloch Bridge by Wednesday morning and a bone-chilling minus 7C at Sennybridge in Wales on the following two nights. As bonfire night approached frost and patchy fog remained on the menu across more southern areas of Britain but it was steadily turning milder by day. Over the weekend the English Riviera in Devon saw afternoon temperatures as high as 16C under deep blue skies.

 

As for the forecast most of the rain will be across Scotland but heavy dews will also bring high condensation indices to southern parts.

 

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